Why Europe Should Remain Calm About US Energy Supply Dependency
Europe has seen a significant increase in its dependence on US fossil fuel exports notably since 2021. The United States has become one of the key suppliers of gas and oil to the European Union with US gas imports rising from under 6 percent in 2021 to over 26 percent in 2025 according to Bruegel statistics. Similarly US crude oil exports have elevated the US to the second largest supplier after Norway.
Following Russias invasion of Ukraine in 2022 Europe sought alternative sources of natural gas in particular liquefied natural gas LNG and petroleum. The Energy Deals Tracker by ECFR highlights how this shift resulted not only from individual decisions by EU member states and energy companies but also from policy agreements between the EU and the US. An example is the March 2022 accord where EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US President Joe Biden agreed to enhance material supplies to Europe.
While some critics have raised concerns about Europes dependency on US energy especially in the context of previous US policies under Donald Trump that aimed to boost domestic fossil fuel production there are reasons for reassurance. The level of US fuel exports although increasing remains lower than dependence on Russian supplies which accounted for nearly 45 percent of EU gas imports in 2021. US gas imports to Europe have grown from 21 bcm in 2021 to approximately 83 bcm in 2025 contributing to more diverse sourcing.
Europe's total gas imports have decreased from 361 bcm in 2021 to 313 bcm in 2025 reflecting increased diversification and strategic sourcing including Algeria Nigeria Norway Qatar and Trinidad and Tobago. US oil exports also constitute only a 15 percent share in Europes petroleum imports with future global market surpluses expected to facilitate diversification. The global oil markets transportability and high competition level further reduce dependency risks.
Concerns over political risks are mitigated by the contractual nature of US exports which are mainly negotiated between private companies rather than government-controlled entities making supply disruptions less likely. Although political tensions can influence prices the physical supply chains are comparatively insulated from direct interference.
Furthermore US-Europe energy cooperation remains crucial for American industry as well. In 2025 60 percent of US LNG exports went to Europe with US companies planning to expand export capacities. Despite political rhetoric US energy companies see value in maintaining strong ties with European markets which are vital for their export strategy.
However Europe must continue efforts to reduce dependence on single supplier sources. Analysts suggest creating a comprehensive dependency tracking database and establishing an independent oversight agency to monitor long-term reliance on a limited number of energy partners. Pursuing increased renewable energy deployment improving energy efficiency and developing nuclear power are also essential strategies for enhancing long-term energy security.
In conclusion Europe should avoid panic regarding its energy dependency on the United States. The current situation while requiring strategic attention still offers opportunities for diversification resilience and the advancement of renewable and nuclear energy sources. A balanced and proactive approach will bolster the EU energy security against future geopolitical and market uncertainties