Global Electricity Mix Set to Reach 50 Percent Renewable and Nuclear by 2030
The International Energy Agency's latest report forecasts that renewable and nuclear energies will constitute 50 percent of the global electricity mix by the end of the decade. This surge is alongside a continued increase in natural gas utilisation, reflecting a diverse energy landscape.
Global energy demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of over 3.5 percent during the coming years, necessitating expansion across multiple sources of generation. Electricity production from renewables, gas, and nuclear will expand to meet this rising demand, maintaining pace with overall energy consumption.
The annual report, titled Electric Power 2026, provides an in-depth analysis of the evolving global electricity systems and markets. It includes forecasts for electricity demand, supply, and carbon dioxide emissions over the next five years up to 2030, highlighting significant trends and policy developments.
Demand for electricity is expected to grow at a pace at least 2.5 times faster than overall energy demand, underpinned by the increasing reliance on electrification in industries, wider uptake of electric vehicles, and growing use of air conditioning and data centres. While emerging economies lead in demand growth, advanced economies are also increasing their consumption after years of stagnation, contributing to a fifth of all additional energy demand.
The report confirms that renewable energy, led by record-breaking solar photovoltaic deployment, is overtaking coal-fired generation, having almost reached parity in 2025. Nuclear power has also hit new production records. By 2030, renewables and nuclear are expected to generate 50 percent of global electricity, up from 42 percent today.
Natural gas production is also forecast to grow, driven by increased demand in the United States and a shift from oil to gas in the Middle East. Meanwhile, coal generation is expected to decline to 2021 levels by the end of this decade as renewables expand. Consequently, global CO2 emissions from electricity generation are projected to remain relatively flat through to 2030.
To support this growth, the report emphasises the importance of expanding transmission networks and increasing system flexibility. Currently, over 2500 gigawatts of projects — including renewable, storage, and large load centres like data centres — are awaiting connection approval worldwide.
Enhancing grid infrastructure through technological upgrades and regulatory reforms could enable the realisation of approximately 1600 gigawatts of deferred projects. Such measures would improve network utilisation and significantly boost system capacity and resilience.
In a context of rising global demand and evolving energy patterns, strengthening the security and resilience of electrical systems remains vital. Addressing threats from ageing infrastructure, extreme weather, cyberattacks, and other vulnerabilities will require system modernisation and improved physical protection of critical assets.
Battery storage capacities at utility scale have grown significantly, offering essential flexibility for balancing supply and demand. Markets in California, Germany, Texas, South Australia and the United Kingdom have seen rapid deployment of large-scale battery capacity in recent years.
Electricity affordability continues to be a pressing concern, with rising prices affecting households and industries across many countries. Policymakers are prioritising market design and regulatory reforms to stimulate investment, boost flexibility, and improve overall system efficiency.
In conclusion, achieving a sustainable and secure electricity future demands accelerated infrastructure development, technological innovation, and strengthening grid resilience to accommodate higher shares of renewables and nuclear energy, while safeguarding against emerging risks.