Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Price Forecasts Amid Persistent Supply Disruptions and Global Demand Fluctuations

Goldman Sachs has significantly revised its oil price forecasts, projecting an increase in the average price of a barrel for the upcoming quarter. The bank now anticipates that the Brent crude could average 90 dollars, up from an earlier estimate of 80 dollars, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is forecasted at 83 dollars, compared to the previous 75 dollars. These adjustments reflect ongoing market tensions driven by supply disruptions and geopolitical risks in key regions.

Looking further ahead, Goldman Sachs suggests that if supply disruptions persist and export normalisation in the Gulf of Persia is delayed until the end of July, prices could surge dramatically. The most pessimistic scenario estimates oil could reach nearly 120 dollars per barrel during the fourth quarter of 2026, mainly if the regions production capacity remains constrained. Conversely, a favourable scenario envisions prices remaining below 80 dollars if exports normalise by mid-June and active supply responses from the United States and OPEC dominate market conditions.

One of the main factors driving these forecasts is the ongoing decline in production from the Gulf of Persia. The regions estimated daily loss of 14.5 million barrels has led to a record reduction in global stockpiles, averaging 11-12 million barrels daily in April. This supply crunch is also impacting global demand, with estimates indicating a decrease of 1.7 million barrels daily in the second quarter of 2026, and a marginal drop of 0.1 million barrels per day in the same year.

Musentains that if the supply constraints extend and inventory reductions become unsustainable, demand may decrease further to balance the market, potentially leading to higher prices. The forecast incorporates the risk of persistent supply shortages, rising refined product prices, and the overall economic uncertainty surrounding the energy sector. The threat of a prolonged crisis underscores the potential for prices to spike substantially, especially if production limitations persist into late 2026.

Analysts from Goldman Sachs highlight the critical role of geopolitical stability in shaping future price trajectories. While price levels could stabilise if Gulf exports resume by mid-June and global supply responds strongly, the tension remains high. Market participants closely monitor developments in the Gulf, OPECs capacity adjustments, and international demand trends as key determinants of future oil pricing. Overall, the outlook remains one of elevated risk with potential for significant price rallies depending on regional supply stability and global demand resilience.